9

Fuel Commodities and Carbon Prices

Fuel prices are key assumptions for the power market modelling as they determine the merit order of the electricity generation units, hence the electricity dispatch and resulting electricity prices.

ENTSOG and ENTSO-E have used several sources to benchmark the different price forecasts and projections in order to conclude on the reference source to be used for the scenarios (IEA, Primes, Bloomberg, IHS). This assessment shows that the prices provided by the PRIMES, which considers the global context and development that influences commodity prices, in-line with the EC targets, is robust enough to be used as a reference for gas, oil and coal prices as well for the CO₂ price. Prices for nuclear, lignite and biofuels are kept the same as considered for TYNDP 2018.

The following table summarizes the source for each fuel type and CO₂.

Starting from the PRIMES reference price for National Trends 2030, the CO₂ price will be increased in order to achieve a specific carbon budget as defined for each specific storyline and year.

Figure 48

Figure 48: Summary of fuel price references

The table below summarizes all the resulting prices per scenario.

 202020212023202520302040
BEG2CNTDEGANTDEGA
€/GJNuclear0.470.470.470.470.470.47
Lignite1.11.11.11.11.11.1
Oil shale2.32.32.32.32.32.3
Hard Coal3.03.123.43.794.36.91
Natural Gas5.65.86.16.466.917.31
Light Oil12.914.116.418.820.522.2
Heavy Oil10.611.112.213.314.617.2
€/tCO2CO2 price19.720.421.723562753357510080

Table 6: Fuel prices in TYNDP 2020 scenarios