Joint Foreword

We are delighted to present to you the gas and electricity ENTSOs joint Scenario Report,

Jan Ingwersen

Jan Ingwersen
General Director ENTSOG

Laurent Schmitt

Laurent Schmitt
Secretary-General ENTSO-E

the second report of its kind to involve the two ENTSOs working closely together to develop European-focused scenarios. Scenario work is the first important step to capture the interactions between the gas and electricity systems and is therefore paramount to deliver the best assessment of the infrastructure in a hybrid system. The joint work also provides a basis to allow assessment for the European Commission’s Projects of Common Interest (PCI) list for energy, as the ENTSOs progress to develop their Ten-Year Network Development Plans (TYNDPs).

Stakeholder collaboration and feedback has been an immensely important element of the process and will continue to be in future editions. The outcomes of the work presented, illustrates the unique position the gas and electricity TSOs are in to provide quantitative and qualitative output: in total over 80 participants, covering more than 35 countries, contributed to the process. The combined expertise and modelling capabilities enabled the ENTSOs joint working group to build a set of ambitious and technically robust scenarios.

A core element of the ENTSO scenario building process has been the use of supply and demand data collected from both gas and electricity TSOs to build bottom-up scenarios. This approach is used for the National Trends Scenario, the central policy scenario of this report, recognising national and EU climate targets, notably the draft National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs). In view of the 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement, ENTSOs have also developed the Global Ambition and Distributed Energy Scenarios using a top-down approach with a full-energy perspective.

As the ENTSOs look to the future, it is evident that innovation, integration and efficiency are key to meeting European energy consumers’ needs, whilst also achieving EU decarbonisation goals. Both gas and electricity networks connect countries and lead to regional and pan-European solidarity and economies of scale, while ensuring electricity and gas are delivered reliably to customers throughout the year, including peak demand situations. Both networks play a key role in supporting the uptake of new technologies and meeting decarbonisation challenges. Energy conversion projects must progress: Power-to-Gas, for example, allows electricity from renewables to be transformed into renewable gases, to be stored and transported via the gas infrastructure.

Integration of the electricity and gas sector can optimise the assessment and usage of both grids, whilst continuing to meet the European energy policy objectives of sustainability, security of supply and competitiveness. A hybrid energy infrastructure of both electricity and gas systems as cross-border energy carriers will result in flexibility, storage and security of supply.

The integrity of the network development process is reliant on a comprehensive, reliable and contrasted set of possible energy futures – the collaborative efforts of the ENTSOs, energy industries, NGOs, National Regulatory Authorities and Member States have shown the commitment to ensure this is the case. The development of the Scenarios outlined in this report will allow the ENTSOs‘ TYNDPs to perform a sound assessment of European infrastructure requirements. We look forward to working with you again as we follow the next important steps in the TYNDP process.

Jan Ingwersen

Jan Ingwersen
General Director ENTSOG

Laurent Schmitt

Laurent Schmitt
Secretary-General ENTSO-E

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TYNDP 2020 – Scenario Report

  1. Introduction
  2. Highlights
  3. Special Focus: Pathways towards a decarbonised economy
  4. Scenario description and storylines
  5. Scenario Results
  6. Electricity Costs
  7. Benchmarking
  8. Fuel Commodities and Carbon Prices
  9. Stakeholder Feedback and how it shaped the storylines
  10. Improvements in 2020 Scenarios
  11. Next Steps
  12. Glossary
Download Scenario Report

TYNDP 2020 – Scenario Methodology Report

Download Methodology Report
1

Introduction

What is this report about?

ENTSOs’ TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report describes possible European energy futures up to 2050. Scenarios are not forecasts; they set out a range of possible futures used by the ENTSOs to test future electricity and gas infrastructure needs and projects.

The scenarios are ambitious as they deliver a low carbon energy system for Europe by 2050. The ENTSOs have developed credible scenarios that are guided by technically sound pathways, while reflecting country by country specifics, so that a pan-European low carbon future is achieved.

Forward-looking scenarios to study the future of gas and electricity

Scenarios are a prerequisite for any study analysing the future of the European energy system. Regulation (EU) 347/2013 requires that the ENTSOs use scenarios for their respective Ten-Year Network Development Plans (TYNDPs) 2020. ENTSO-E use scenarios to assess electricity security of supply for the ENTSO-E Mid-Term Adequacy Forecast (MAF).

All scenarios head towards a decarbonised future and have been designed to reduce GHG emissions in line with EU targets for 2030 or the United Nations Climate Change Conference 2015 (COP21) Paris Agreement objective of keeping temperature rise below 1.5° C.

Why do the ENTSOs build scenarios together?

The joint scenario report is a basis towards an interlinked model of ENTSO-E and ENTSOG. TYNDP 2018 was the first time ENTSOs cooperated jointly on scenario development. There are strong synergies and co-dependency between gas and electricity infrastructures, it is increasingly important to understand the impacts as European policy seeks to deliver a carbon-neutral energy system by 2050.

Joint scenarios allow the ENTSOs to assess future infrastructure needs and projects against the same future outlooks. The outcomes from the joint scenarios provide decision makers with better information, as they seek to make informed choices that will benefit all European consumers. Combining the efforts from gas and electricity TSOs give the ENTSOs an opportunity to tap into cross-sectoral knowledge and expertise that would otherwise be missing. Joint working provides access to a broader range of stakeholders who are actively participating in the energy sector.

First step towards the 2020 edition of electricity and gas TYNDPs

The joint scenario building process has three storylines for TYNDP2020. National Trends is the central policy scenario of this report, designed to reflect the most recent EU member state National Energy and Climate Plans (NECP), submitted to the EC in line with the requirement to meet current European 2030 energy strategy targets. National Trends represents a policy scenario used in the infrastructure assessment phase of the ENTSOs’ respective Ten-Year Network Development Plans (TYNDP) 2020, with a more in-depth analysis as compared to the other scenarios.

In addition, ENTSO-E and ENTSOG have created two scenarios in line with the COP 21 targets (Distributed Energy and Global Ambition) with the objective to understand the impact on infrastructure needs against different pathways reducing EU-28 emissions to net-zero by 2050.

The three scenario storylines developed in consultation with stakeholders are detailed extensively in the ENTSOs Storylines Report1 released in May 2019.

Visualise and download scenarios data in one click

The joint scenario package provides an extensive data set resource that is used by each ENTSO TYNDP and other studies. Scenario information contained in this report is provided in EU-28 terms unless otherwise stated. The technical datasets submitted to the TYDNP process and available to download extend beyond the EU-28 countries, including countries, such as, Norway, Switzerland and Turkey.

The ENTSOs invite stakeholders to use the scenario data sets for their own studies. All data from the scenarios can be accessed via the visualisation platform2. Whereas Distributed Energy and Global Ambition have been built as full-energy scenarios until 2050, National Trends is based on electricity and gas related data from the NECP and developed until 2040.

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Methodology in detail

The development of the scenarios builds on storylines and a methodology to translate the storylines into parameters and eventually figures. The TYNDP 2020 Scenario Methodology Report3 provides full transparency on how the scenarios are developed and how the development of different demand technologies, generation and conversion capacities, renewable shares and all other parameters are considered.

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2

Highlights

1

To comply with the 1.5° C targets of the Paris Agreement, carbon neutrality must be achieved by 2040 in the electricity sector and by 2050 in all sectors. Additional measures to reach net negative emissions after 2050 are necessary.
2

To achieve net-zero emissions, innovation in new and existing technologies is required to:

— reduce the levelised cost of energy from renewable energy sources
— increase the efficiency and type of end user appliances
— support renewable and decarbonised gas
— develop technologies that will support negative emissions

3

“Quick wins” are essential to reduce global temperature warming. A coal to gas switch in the power sector can save up to 150 MtCO2 per year by 2025.
4

To optimise conversions, the direct use of electricity is an important option – resulting in progressive electrification throughout all scenarios. Gas will continue to play an important role in sectors such as feedstock in non-energy uses, high-temperature processes, transport and aviation or in hybrid heating solutions to make ­optimal use of both infrastructures.
5

To move towards a low carbon energy system, significant investment in gas and electricity renewable technologies is required. Further expansion of cross border transfer capacity between markets will contribute to ensuring renewable resources are efficiently distributed and dispatched in the European electricity market.
6

Wind and solar energy will play an important role in the European energy system, however, the scenarios point out that the decarbonisation of gas will have a significant part to play as well. The scenarios show that the decarbonisation of the gas carrier is necessary, employing technologies to increase the share of renewable gases, such as bio-methane and Power-to-Gas, and decarbonised gases associated with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS).
7

At present gas as an energy carrier is mainly based on methane, as the main component of natural gas. However, in the longer term hydrogen could become an equally important energy carrier towards full decarbonisation of the gas carriers in 2050.
8

Sector Coupling enables a link between energy carriers and sectors, thus it becomes key in contributing to achieving the decarbonisation target. In the long-term, Power-to-Gas will play a key role in both the integration of excess electricity from variable renewables and decarbonising the gas supply. Gas-fired power plants will continue to provide peak power flexibility to support an energy mix based on increasingly variable electricity generation.
9

Today, the EU28 imports most of its primary energy (ca. 55 %¹). Decarbonisation will also change this pattern. In a way, the “insourcing” of energy production will reduce the import dependency to ca. 20 % to 36 %. However, imports remain an important vector in the future energy supply making use of competitive natural resources outside the EU territory. For gas in particular, import shares increase in all scenarios until 2030 due to the declining natural gas production in the EU.

¹ See EUROSTAT